UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 1

Como–RB Leipzig

4–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 10 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'ComoMartin Baturina
38'ComoAnastasios Douvikas (assist: Martin Baturina)
54'ComoAssane Diao (assist: Nico Paz)
58'RB LeipzigA. MaksimoviÄ (assist: C. Nkunku)
90'ComoMáximo Perrone (assist: Nico Paz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Como		RB Leipzig
14	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	5
5	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
519	Passes	498
467	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Como 1.95 · RB Leipzig 1.21. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Como 14 · RB Leipzig 14; on target 6 and 4.

Announced lineup

Como

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Cesc Fàbregas

Starting XI

Jean Butezgoalkeeper
Álex Valledefender
Jacobo Ramóndefender
Trevoh Chalobahdefender
Yan Coutodefender
Luis Millamidfielder
Lucas Da Cunhamidfielder
Assane Diaomidfielder
Nico Pazmidfielder
Martin Baturinamidfielder
Anastasios Douvikasforward

Substitutes

Alberto Dossena
Ivan Smolčić

Unavailable players

Como

A. Lahdoout · Off the roster
E. Goldanigaout · Off the roster
J. Addaiout · Achilles Tendon Injury
M. Caqueretout · Off the roster
M. Vigoritoout · Off the roster
W. Kambwalaout · Off the roster

RB Leipzig

A. Koneout · Off the roster
C. Baumgartnerout · Thigh Injury
L. Zingerleout · Off the roster
R. Reitzout · Muscle Injury
S. Saniout · Off the roster
V. Gebelout · Knee Injury
A. Ouedraogodoubtful · Shoulder Injury
B. Gruda

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.2%: “Como to win”. Second comes “RB Leipzig to win” at 24.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.05 for Como, 1.29 for RB Leipzig.
The highest double chance value is 79.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,792 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Como to win55.2%

Draw20.7%

RB Leipzig to win24.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

RB Leipzig

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: M. Demichelis

Starting XI

M. Vandevoordtgoalkeeper
D. Raumdefender
C. Lukebadefender
W. Orbándefender
R. Bakudefender
C. Nkunkumidfielder
N. Seiwaldmidfielder
N. El Aynaouimidfielder
A. Nusaforward
Marc Guiuforward
A. MaksimoviÄforward

Substitutes

A. Ouedraogo
B. Gruda
B. Henrichs
E. Banzuzi
J. Bakayoko
L. Klostermann
M. Estève
Max Finkgräfe
O. Nyland
Romulo Cardoso
T. Gomis

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Thursday, 10 September 2026 at 19:14.

doubtful · Ankle Injury

C. Lukebadoubtful · Muscle Injury

Romulo Cardosodoubtful · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Como win or draw75.9%

12 — any result other than a draw79.3%

X2 — draw or RB Leipzig win44.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.7%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.4%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Como score1.95

Attack: Como score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: RB Leipzig's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals RB Leipzig score1.21

Attack: RB Leipzig score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Como concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.6%1–19.1%1–07.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2792 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 79 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.