UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 1

Bayern München–Bodo/Glimt

5–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 10 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

47'Bayern MünchenJ. Musiala (assist: H. Kane)
61'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (assist: M. Olise)
77'Bayern MünchenA. Davies
83'Bayern MünchenM. Olise (assist: L. Karl)
87'Bodo/GlimtO. Bjørtuft · red card
90+2'Bayern MünchenM. Olise

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayern München		Bodo/Glimt
25	Shots	3
12	Shots on target	0
11	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
66%	Possession	34%
699	Passes	356
648	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayern München 2.89 · Bodo/Glimt 1.20. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Bayern München 25 · Bodo/Glimt 3; on target 12 and 0.
Bayern München kept the ball more (66%).

Announced lineup

Bayern München

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: V. Kompany

Starting XI

M. Neuergoalkeeper
A. Daviesdefender
J. Tahdefender
D. Upamecanodefender
K. Laimerdefender
A. Pavlovićmidfielder
J. Kimmichmidfielder
L. Díazmidfielder
J. Musialamidfielder
M. Olisemidfielder
H. Kaneforward

Substitutes

Bara Ndiaye
H. Ito

Unavailable players

Bayern München

S. Gnabryout · Muscle Injury
T. Buchmannout · Knee Injury

Bodo/Glimt

A. Mikkelsenout · Groin Injury
H. Aleesamiout · Leg Injury
H. Evjenout · Knee Injury
I. Sjongout · injury
J. Gundersenout · Thigh Injury
M. Riisnaesout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 88.8%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 7.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.86 for Bayern München, 0.84 for Bodo/Glimt.
The highest double chance value is 96.0% (1X — Bayern München win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,353 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayern München to win88.8%

Draw7.1%

Bodo/Glimt to win4.0%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 146 of 165 predictions were correct (88.5%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Bodo/Glimt

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: K. Knutsen

Starting XI

N. Haikingoalkeeper
F. Bjørkandefender
O. Bjørtuftdefender
V. Nielsendefender
F. Sjøvolddefender
S. Fetmidfielder
P. Bergmidfielder
J. Kitolanomidfielder
O. Didrik Blombergforward
A. Helmersenforward
S. Auklendforward

Substitutes

H. Aleesami
I. Määttä
J. Faye Lund
J. Hauge
J. Mvuka
K. Solhaug
O. Brynhildsen
U. Saltnes

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Thursday, 10 September 2026 at 19:14.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bayern München win or draw96.0%

12 — any result other than a draw92.9%

X2 — draw or Bodo/Glimt win11.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (7.1%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.4%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayern München score2.89

Attack: Bayern München score 79% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.89 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score1.20

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 60% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.20 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

3–08.8%4–08.5%3–17.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2353 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 138 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.