UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 1

Fenerbahçe–AS Roma

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 10 September 2026 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'AS RomaBryan Cristante (assist: Donyell Malen)
48'FenerbahçeA. Brown (assist: M. Greenwood)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fenerbahçe		AS Roma
11	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
1	Corners	3
1	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
441	Passes	615
368	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fenerbahçe 1.16 · AS Roma 1.87. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Fenerbahçe 11 · AS Roma 8; on target 5 and 3.
AS Roma kept the ball more (58%).

Announced lineup

Fenerbahçe

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: İ. Kartal

Starting XI

Edersongoalkeeper
A. Browndefender
N. Akédefender
M. Škriniardefender
M. Müldürdefender
B. Elmazmidfielder
N. Kantémidfielder
İ. Yüksekmidfielder
K. Akturkogluforward
V. Muriqiforward
M. Greenwoodforward

Substitutes

İ. Kahveci
K. Peprah Oppong

Unavailable players

Fenerbahçe

A. Dioufout · Off the roster
A. Fallout · Off the roster
C. Soyuncuout · injury
J. Oosterwoldeout · Achilles Tendon Injury
M. Asensioout · Muscle Injury
M. Guendouziout · red-card suspension
M. Yandasout · Off the roster
Rodrigo Becaoout · Off the roster

AS Roma

L. Pellegriniout · Thigh Injury
M. Bahout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.9%: “AS Roma to win”. Second comes “Fenerbahçe to win” at 29.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.31 for Fenerbahçe, 1.75 for AS Roma.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,955 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fenerbahçe to win29.3%

Draw22.8%

AS Roma to win47.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	19

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

AS Roma

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: G. Gasperini

Starting XI

Mile Svilargoalkeeper
Mario Hermosodefender
E. Ndickadefender
Gianluca Mancinidefender
Wesleymidfielder
Manu Konémidfielder
Bryan Cristantemidfielder
D. Renschmidfielder
Matías Soulémidfielder
Paulo Dybalamidfielder
Donyell Malenforward

Substitutes

Daniele Ghilardi
Emanuele Lulli
Giorgio De Marzi
Konstantinos Koulierakis
L. Balerdi
Marten de Roon
Nahuel Molina
Niccolò Pisilli
Pierluigi Gollini
Rodrigo Mora
Santiago Castro

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Thursday, 10 September 2026 at 16:58.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Fenerbahçe win or draw52.1%

12 — any result other than a draw77.2%

X2 — draw or AS Roma win70.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.8%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.5%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fenerbahçe score1.16

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: AS Roma concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.16 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals AS Roma score1.87

Attack: AS Roma score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.87 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–110.4%1–29.4%0–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2955 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 148 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.