1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 33

Gençlerbirliği S.K.–Giresunspor

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 May 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

69'Gençlerbirliği S.K.M. Yatabare (assist: B. Çağıran)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gençlerbirliği S.K.		Giresunspor
23	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	0
17	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
11	Corners	2
3	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
456	Passes	267
369	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2.10 · Giresunspor 0.48. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Gençlerbirliği S.K. 23 · Giresunspor 7; on target 4 and 0.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

A. Yılmaz→

4.94

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.2%: “Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.10 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 0.48 for Giresunspor.
The highest double chance value is 93.8% (1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 602 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win76.2%

Draw17.6%

Giresunspor to win6.2%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time59.2%

Level at half-time36.0%

Giresunspor lead at half-time4.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead or level95.2%

12 — not level at half-time64.0%

X2 — level or Giresunspor ahead40.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 602 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 11Actual: 6
Giresunspor: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 5Actual: 11
Giresunspor: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score2.10

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Giresunspor concede 61% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Giresunspor score0.48

Attack: Giresunspor score below the league average (48% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–017.5%1–015.4%3–012.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.