1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 32

Boluspor–Altay

3–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 April 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bolu Atatürk Stadyumu, Bolu

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+1'AltayE. Öğrüce
54'BolusporD. Avramovski (assist: Jefferson)
58'BolusporPetar Gigić · red card
66'BolusporN. Oularé
90+4'BolusporD. Avramovski (assist: T. Cicek)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Boluspor		Altay
17	Shots	8
8	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
362	Passes	347
255	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Boluspor 1.70 · Altay 0.61. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Boluspor 17 · Altay 8; on target 8 and 3.

Referee

O. Ergün→

4.95

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.1%: “Boluspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for Boluspor, 0.61 for Altay.
The highest double chance value is 88.3% (1X — Boluspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 592 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Boluspor to win64.1%

Draw24.2%

Altay to win11.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

5	Fouls	19

3	Yellow cards	5

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Boluspor lead at half-time35.9%

Level at half-time48.3%

Altay lead at half-time15.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Boluspor ahead or level84.2%

12 — not level at half-time51.7%

X2 — level or Altay ahead64.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 592 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Boluspor: at least 11Actual: 5
Altay: at least 14Actual: 19

Corners

Boluspor: at least 5Actual: 9
Altay: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Boluspor score1.70

Attack: Boluspor score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Altay concede 54% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Altay score0.61

Attack: Altay score below the league average (43% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Boluspor's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–016.5%2–014.9%1–111.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.