1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 31

Bodrum FK–Şanlıurfaspor

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 April 2024 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bodrum İlçe Stadı, Bodrum

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'ŞanlıurfasporAmar Begić (assist: K. Harris)
74'Bodrum FKC. Dumanlı (assist: H. Osman)
90+1'Bodrum FKÜ. Ergün (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodrum FK		Şanlıurfaspor
8	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
395	Passes	335
283	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodrum FK 1.34 · Şanlıurfaspor 0.72. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Bodrum FK 8 · Şanlıurfaspor 6; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

E. Özdamar→

4.58

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.2%: “Bodrum FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Bodrum FK, 0.72 for Şanlıurfaspor.
The highest double chance value is 81.2% (1X — Bodrum FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 587 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodrum FK to win51.2%

Draw29.9%

Şanlıurfaspor to win18.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	16

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bodrum FK lead at half-time43.0%

Level at half-time44.2%

Şanlıurfaspor lead at half-time12.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodrum FK ahead or level87.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or Şanlıurfaspor ahead57.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 587 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodrum FK: at least 13Actual: 13
Şanlıurfaspor: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Bodrum FK: at least 5Actual: 7
Şanlıurfaspor: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodrum FK score1.34

Attack: Bodrum FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Şanlıurfaspor's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Şanlıurfaspor score0.72

Attack: Şanlıurfaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bodrum FK concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–016.7%1–114.2%0–012.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.