1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 31

Giresunspor–Göztepe

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 April 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu, Giresun

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'GöztepeYalçın Kayan (assist: K. Kanatsizkus)
49'GöztepeYalçın Kayan (assist: Romulo Cardoso)
68'GöztepeÜmit Akdağ

Match statistics

Match statistics
Giresunspor		Göztepe
11	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	8
5	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
0	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
38%	Possession	62%
334	Passes	546
231	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Giresunspor 0.35 · Göztepe 2.31. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Giresunspor 11 · Göztepe 19; on target 3 and 8.
Göztepe kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

S. Bahadır→

0.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 83.0%: “Göztepe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.35 for Giresunspor, 2.31 for Göztepe.
The highest double chance value is 96.6% (X2 — draw or Göztepe win).
These values were computed from 585 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Giresunspor to win3.4%

Draw13.6%

Göztepe to win83.0%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

5	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Giresunspor lead at half-time3.0%

Level at half-time36.3%

Göztepe lead at half-time60.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Giresunspor ahead or level39.3%

12 — not level at half-time63.7%

X2 — level or Göztepe ahead97.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 585 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Giresunspor: at least 9Actual: 5
Göztepe: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Giresunspor: at least 3
Göztepe: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Giresunspor score0.35

Attack: Giresunspor score below the league average (52% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Göztepe concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Göztepe score2.31

Attack: Göztepe score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Giresunspor concede 58% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.31 goals.

Most likely scorelines

0–219.6%0–115.7%0–315.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.