1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 30

Kocaelispor–Giresunspor

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 April 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'KocaelisporR. Şeydayev (assist: J. Amaral)
76'KocaelisporD. Candeias (assist: Barış Alıcı)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kocaelispor		Giresunspor
13	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
615	Passes	362
537	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kocaelispor 2.33 · Giresunspor 0.42. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Kocaelispor 13 · Giresunspor 7; on target 7 and 1.
Kocaelispor kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

D. Çelik→

5.13

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 81.7%: “Kocaelispor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 14.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.33 for Kocaelispor, 0.42 for Giresunspor.
The highest double chance value is 95.8% (1X — Kocaelispor win or draw).
These values were computed from 580 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kocaelispor to win81.7%

Draw14.2%

Giresunspor to win4.2%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	6

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Kocaelispor lead at half-time59.2%

Level at half-time36.4%

Giresunspor lead at half-time4.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Kocaelispor ahead or level95.6%

12 — not level at half-time63.6%

X2 — level or Giresunspor ahead40.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 580 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kocaelispor: at least 11Actual: 11
Giresunspor: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

Kocaelispor: at least 6Actual: 6
Giresunspor: at least 2Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kocaelispor score2.33

Attack: Kocaelispor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Giresunspor concede 59% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Giresunspor score0.42

Attack: Giresunspor score below the league average (51% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kocaelispor's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–018.2%1–014.4%3–014.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.