1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 30

Beykoz Anadolu–Göztepe

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 April 2024 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

58'Beykoz AnadoluW. Togui
63'GöztepeR. Lundqvist (assist: Celil Yüksel)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beykoz Anadolu		Göztepe
6	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	1
3	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
328	Passes	455
220	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beykoz Anadolu 0.75 · Göztepe 1.69. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Beykoz Anadolu 6 · Göztepe 10; on target 2 and 4.
Göztepe kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

M. Özer→

6.10

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.0%: “Göztepe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.75 for Beykoz Anadolu, 1.69 for Göztepe.
The highest double chance value is 85.1% (X2 — draw or Göztepe win).
These values were computed from 578 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beykoz Anadolu to win14.9%

Draw25.1%

Göztepe to win60.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Beykoz Anadolu lead at half-time12.2%

Level at half-time43.2%

Göztepe lead at half-time44.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Beykoz Anadolu ahead or level55.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Göztepe ahead87.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 578 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beykoz Anadolu: at least 10Actual: 13
Göztepe: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Beykoz Anadolu: at least 4Actual: 4
Göztepe: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beykoz Anadolu score0.75

Attack: Beykoz Anadolu score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Göztepe concede 33% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Göztepe score1.69

Attack: Göztepe score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Beykoz Anadolu's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–114.2%0–212.8%1–112.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.