1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 30

Altay–Çorum FK

1–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 April 2024 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı, İzmir

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Çorum FKAhmet İlhan Özek
31'AltayS. Sarikaya (assist: D. Kadah)
38'Çorum FKM. Nalepa (assist: Geraldo)
90+4'Çorum FKS. Kaya (assist: E. Aydın)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Altay		Çorum FK
6	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	5
3	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	6
1	Offsides	3
36%	Possession	64%
328	Passes	570
261	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Altay 0.65 · Çorum FK 1.96. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Altay 6 · Çorum FK 12; on target 2 and 5.
Çorum FK kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

İ. Avcı→

3.91

yellows per match

0.45

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.0%: “Çorum FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.65 for Altay, 1.96 for Çorum FK.
The highest double chance value is 89.9% (X2 — draw or Çorum FK win).
These values were computed from 577 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Altay to win10.1%

Draw20.9%

Çorum FK to win69.0%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Altay lead at half-time13.8%

Level at half-time43.1%

Çorum FK lead at half-time43.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Altay ahead or level56.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Çorum FK ahead86.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 577 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Altay: at least 12Actual: 13
Çorum FK: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Altay: at least 3Actual: 2
Çorum FK: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Altay score0.65

Attack: Altay score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Çorum FK's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Çorum FK score1.96

Attack: Çorum FK score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Altay concede 52% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–214.7%0–113.8%1–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.