1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 29

Eyüpspor–Altay

4–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 April 2024 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eyüp Stadı, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'EyüpsporG. Bruno
14'AltayD. Kadah
23'EyüpsporR. Niyaz (assist: G. Bruno)
55'EyüpsporG. Bruno (assist: Fredy)
64'EyüpsporA. Regattin (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eyüpspor		Altay
17	Shots	5
6	Shots on target	1
14	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	0
2	Offsides	0
72%	Possession	28%
571	Passes	223
510	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eyüpspor 2.78 · Altay 0.24. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Eyüpspor 17 · Altay 5; on target 6 and 1.
Eyüpspor kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

A. Şen→

3.81

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 90.7%: “Eyüpspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 8.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.78 for Eyüpspor, 0.24 for Altay.
The highest double chance value is 98.7% (1X — Eyüpspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 570 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eyüpspor to win90.7%

Draw8.0%

Altay to win1.3%

When the model has said 90–95% in the past, 46 of 48 predictions were correct (95.8%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	19

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Eyüpspor lead at half-time58.2%

Level at half-time37.6%

Altay lead at half-time4.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Eyüpspor ahead or level95.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.4%

X2 — level or Altay ahead41.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 570 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eyüpspor: at least 12Actual: 12
Altay: at least 13Actual: 19

Corners

Eyüpspor: at least 6
Altay: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eyüpspor score2.78

Attack: Eyüpspor score 50% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Altay concede 51% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.78 goals.

How many goals Altay score0.24

Attack: Altay score below the league average (42% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eyüpspor concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–019.6%3–018.5%1–012.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.