1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 29

Sakaryaspor–Boluspor

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 April 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Sakarya Atatürk Stadyumu, Adapazarı

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'SakaryasporY. del Valle (assist: O. Roshi)
43'SakaryasporO. Roshi (assist: C. Akpınar)
52'SakaryasporE. Dikmen · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sakaryaspor		Boluspor
10	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	5
3	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
451	Passes	492
366	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sakaryaspor 1.47 · Boluspor 1.03. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Sakaryaspor 10 · Boluspor 15; on target 6 and 2.

Referee

E. Özdamar→

4.57

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.9%: “Sakaryaspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Sakaryaspor, 1.03 for Boluspor.
The highest double chance value is 75.0% (1X — Sakaryaspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 567 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sakaryaspor to win46.9%

Draw28.1%

Boluspor to win25.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time28.3%

Level at half-time49.6%

Boluspor lead at half-time22.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Sakaryaspor ahead or level78.0%

12 — not level at half-time50.4%

X2 — level or Boluspor ahead71.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 567 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sakaryaspor: at least 12Actual: 12
Boluspor: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Sakaryaspor: at least 4Actual: 3
Boluspor: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sakaryaspor score1.47

Attack: Sakaryaspor score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Boluspor's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boluspor score1.03

Attack: Boluspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–011.3%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.