1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 28

Beykoz Anadolu–Ümraniyespor

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 3 April 2024 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'ÜmraniyesporO. Ayık (assist: A. Babacan)
45+2'Beykoz AnadoluS. Mamba (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Beykoz Anadolu		Ümraniyespor
22	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
490	Passes	450
412	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Beykoz Anadolu 1.23 · Ümraniyespor 1.32. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Beykoz Anadolu 22 · Ümraniyespor 12; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

F. Tokail→

4.55

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “Ümraniyespor to win”. Second comes “Beykoz Anadolu to win” at 33.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Beykoz Anadolu, 1.32 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 560 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Beykoz Anadolu to win33.5%

Draw28.8%

Ümraniyespor to win37.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Beykoz Anadolu lead at half-time25.1%

Level at half-time46.0%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time28.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Beykoz Anadolu ahead or level71.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead74.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 560 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Beykoz Anadolu: at least 13Actual: 11
Ümraniyespor: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

Beykoz Anadolu: at least 3Actual: 8
Ümraniyespor: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Beykoz Anadolu score1.23

Attack: Beykoz Anadolu score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score1.32

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beykoz Anadolu's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–19.4%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.