1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 28

Manisa F.K.–Bodrum FK

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 2 April 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Manisa 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Manisa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

75'Bodrum FKP. Brazao (assist: O. Celustka)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Bodrum FK
9	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	7
1	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
324	Passes	422
237	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.02 · Bodrum FK 1.22. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Manisa F.K. 9 · Bodrum FK 9; on target 2 and 1.
Bodrum FK kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Ö. Gültekin→

4.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.8%: “Bodrum FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.02 for Manisa F.K., 1.22 for Bodrum FK.
The highest double chance value is 70.4% (X2 — draw or Bodrum FK win).
These values were computed from 559 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win29.6%

Draw30.6%

Bodrum FK to win39.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time15.2%

Level at half-time44.9%

Bodrum FK lead at half-time39.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level60.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Bodrum FK ahead84.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 559 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 13Actual: 18
Bodrum FK: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 4Actual: 4
Bodrum FK: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.02

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bodrum FK concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bodrum FK score1.22

Attack: Bodrum FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%0–112.2%0–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.