1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 27

Sakaryaspor–Altay

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 March 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Sakarya Atatürk Stadyumu, Adapazarı

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'SakaryasporK. Kasongo (penalty)
58'SakaryasporY. del Valle

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sakaryaspor		Altay
21	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	3
15	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
462	Passes	338
383	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sakaryaspor 2.15 · Altay 0.60. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Sakaryaspor 21 · Altay 9; on target 3 and 3.
Sakaryaspor kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

A. Yılmaz→

5.06

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.1%: “Sakaryaspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.15 for Sakaryaspor, 0.60 for Altay.
The highest double chance value is 92.2% (1X — Sakaryaspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 555 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sakaryaspor to win74.1%

Draw18.2%

Altay to win7.8%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 469 of 1,102 predictions were correct (42.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sakaryaspor win or draw92.2%

12 — any result other than a draw81.8%

X2 — draw or Altay win25.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.2%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time42.9%

Level at half-time45.0%

Altay lead at half-time12.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Sakaryaspor ahead or level87.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Altay ahead57.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 555 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sakaryaspor: at least 11Actual: 13
Altay: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Sakaryaspor: at least 5Actual: 5
Altay: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sakaryaspor score2.15

Attack: Sakaryaspor score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Altay concede 41% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Altay score0.60

Attack: Altay score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–015.4%1–013.2%3–010.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 555 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 60 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.