1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 27

Erzurumspor FK–Beykoz Anadolu

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 March 2024 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu, Erzurum

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'Erzurumspor FKE. Tozlu (assist: Y. Kirtay)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Erzurumspor FK		Beykoz Anadolu
7	Shots	4
3	Shots on target	0
4	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
0	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
364	Passes	426
238	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Erzurumspor FK 1.39 · Beykoz Anadolu 0.76. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Erzurumspor FK 7 · Beykoz Anadolu 4; on target 3 and 0.

Referee

S. Saka→

3.74

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.6%: “Erzurumspor FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Erzurumspor FK, 0.76 for Beykoz Anadolu.
The highest double chance value is 80.8% (1X — Erzurumspor FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 551 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Erzurumspor FK to win51.6%

Draw29.2%

Beykoz Anadolu to win19.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Erzurumspor FK lead at half-time38.4%

Level at half-time45.9%

Beykoz Anadolu lead at half-time15.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Erzurumspor FK ahead or level84.3%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or Beykoz Anadolu ahead61.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 551 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Erzurumspor FK: at least 12Actual: 14
Beykoz Anadolu: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Erzurumspor FK: at least 5
Beykoz Anadolu: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Erzurumspor FK score1.39

Attack: Erzurumspor FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Beykoz Anadolu's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Beykoz Anadolu score0.76

Attack: Beykoz Anadolu score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Erzurumspor FK concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.6%1–114.2%2–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.