1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 27

Gençlerbirliği S.K.–Kocaelispor

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 15 March 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'Gençlerbirliği S.K.M. Bostan (assist: Amilton)
45+2'Gençlerbirliği S.K.M. Bostan (assist: J. Léa Siliki)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gençlerbirliği S.K.		Kocaelispor
7	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
31%	Possession	69%
274	Passes	601
191	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.29 · Kocaelispor 1.08. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Gençlerbirliği S.K. 7 · Kocaelispor 14; on target 4 and 5.
Kocaelispor kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

E. Özdamar→

4.55

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.3%: “Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win”. Second comes “Kocaelispor to win” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., 1.08 for Kocaelispor.
The highest double chance value is 70.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 547 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win40.3%

Draw29.7%

Kocaelispor to win30.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lead at half-time23.4%

Level at half-time46.9%

Kocaelispor lead at half-time29.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead or level70.3%

12 — not level at half-time53.1%

X2 — level or Kocaelispor ahead76.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 547 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 11Actual: 11
Kocaelispor: at least 13Actual: 9

Corners

Gençlerbirliği S.K.: at least 4Actual: 2
Kocaelispor: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gençlerbirliği S.K. score1.29

Attack: Gençlerbirliği S.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kocaelispor's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kocaelispor score1.08

Attack: Kocaelispor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–011.2%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.