1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 22

Çorum FK–Ümraniyespor

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 9 February 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Çorum Şehir Stadyumu, Corum

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'ÜmraniyesporDimitri Cavaré (assist: S. Nas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Çorum FK		Ümraniyespor
15	Shots	6
2	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
494	Passes	363
414	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Çorum FK 1.85 · Ümraniyespor 0.90. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Çorum FK 15 · Ümraniyespor 6; on target 2 and 3.
Çorum FK kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

F. Daldaş→

4.25

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.8%: “Çorum FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.85 for Çorum FK, 0.90 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 83.6% (1X — Çorum FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 502 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Çorum FK to win59.8%

Draw23.8%

Ümraniyespor to win16.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	8

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Çorum FK lead at half-time38.1%

Level at half-time44.5%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time17.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Çorum FK ahead or level82.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead61.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 502 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Çorum FK: at least 11Actual: 9
Ümraniyespor: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Çorum FK: at least 5Actual: 2
Ümraniyespor: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Çorum FK score1.85

Attack: Çorum FK score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score0.90

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Çorum FK's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–011.2%1–011.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.