1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 20

Bandırmaspor–Giresunspor

6–0

HT 4–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 January 2024 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı, Bandırma

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'BandırmasporN. Foor (assist: R. Berişbek)
29'BandırmasporM. Djitté (penalty)
39'BandırmasporE. Aydoğan (assist: R. Berişbek)
44'BandırmasporM. Djitté
80'BandırmasporMetehan Mimaroğlu (assist: M. Albayrak)
90+1'BandırmasporC. Soukou (assist: D. Davas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bandırmaspor		Giresunspor
21	Shots	3
10	Shots on target	1
18	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	0
1	Offsides	3
76%	Possession	24%
639	Passes	208
536	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bandırmaspor 2.04 · Giresunspor 0.65. On the pitch: 6-0.
Shots Bandırmaspor 21 · Giresunspor 3; on target 10 and 1.
Bandırmaspor kept the ball more (76%).

Referee

O. Uğurlu→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.5%: “Bandırmaspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.04 for Bandırmaspor, 0.65 for Giresunspor.
The highest double chance value is 90.5% (1X — Bandırmaspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 488 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bandırmaspor to win70.5%

Draw20.0%

Giresunspor to win9.5%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	3

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 4–0

Bandırmaspor lead at half-time46.0%

Level at half-time43.4%

Giresunspor lead at half-time10.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Bandırmaspor ahead or level89.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Giresunspor ahead54.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 488 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bandırmaspor: at least 12Actual: 12
Giresunspor: at least 11Actual: 3

Corners

Bandırmaspor: at least 6
Giresunspor: at least 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bandırmaspor score2.04

Attack: Bandırmaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Giresunspor concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Giresunspor score0.65

Attack: Giresunspor score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Bandırmaspor's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.6%1–013.2%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.