1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 20

Adanaspor–Keçiörengücü

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 26 January 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'KeçiörengücüS. Ilgaz (assist: P. M. Dembele)
11'AdanasporS. Yépié Yépié (assist: A. Dabo)
75'KeçiörengücüA. Yazar (assist: E. Eyibil)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Adanaspor		Keçiörengücü
15	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	3
56%	Possession	44%
436	Passes	344
351	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Adanaspor 1.29 · Keçiörengücü 1.23. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Adanaspor 15 · Keçiörengücü 11; on target 6 and 5.
Adanaspor kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

F. Daldaş→

4.14

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.1%: “Adanaspor to win”. Second comes “Keçiörengücü to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Adanaspor, 1.23 for Keçiörengücü.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 484 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Adanaspor to win37.1%

Draw28.9%

Keçiörengücü to win33.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Adanaspor lead at half-time26.9%

Level at half-time46.0%

Keçiörengücü lead at half-time27.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Adanaspor ahead or level72.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Keçiörengücü ahead73.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 484 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Adanaspor: at least 12Actual: 16
Keçiörengücü: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Adanaspor: at least 4Actual: 4
Keçiörengücü: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Adanaspor score1.29

Attack: Adanaspor score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Keçiörengücü's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Keçiörengücü score1.23

Attack: Keçiörengücü score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Adanaspor concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–09.5%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.