1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 14

Kocaelispor–Ümraniyespor

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 1 December 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'ÜmraniyesporC. Diniyev
45+1'ÜmraniyesporS. Göksu (assist: A. Bouali)
90+1'ÜmraniyesporY. Abdioglu (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kocaelispor		Ümraniyespor
21	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	2
0	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
540	Passes	391
441	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kocaelispor 1.77 · Ümraniyespor 0.83. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Kocaelispor 21 · Ümraniyespor 11; on target 4 and 5.
Kocaelispor kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

K. Bilgiç→

3.60

yellows per match

0.47

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.9%: “Kocaelispor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.77 for Kocaelispor, 0.83 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 84.3% (1X — Kocaelispor win or draw).
These values were computed from 430 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kocaelispor to win59.9%

Draw24.4%

Ümraniyespor to win15.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	5

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Kocaelispor lead at half-time49.6%

Level at half-time41.7%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time8.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Kocaelispor ahead or level91.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead50.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 430 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kocaelispor: at least 13Actual: 14
Ümraniyespor: at least 10Actual: 5

Corners

Kocaelispor: at least 5Actual: 7
Ümraniyespor: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kocaelispor score1.77

Attack: Kocaelispor score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score0.83

Attack: Ümraniyespor score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kocaelispor's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–012.6%1–112.4%2–012.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.