Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 17

Eyüpspor–Fenerbahçe

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 20 December 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'EyüpsporAhmed Kutucu (assist: M. Thiam)
45+4'FenerbahçeY. En Nesyri (assist: F. Kostić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eyüpspor		Fenerbahçe
13	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	9
7	Shots inside the box	11
8	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	9
3	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
327	Passes	434
233	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eyüpspor 1.06 · Fenerbahçe 1.93. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Eyüpspor 13 · Fenerbahçe 14; on target 3 and 9.
Fenerbahçe kept the ball more (58%).

Unavailable players

Eyüpspor

F. Midtsjoout · Knee Injury
R. Niyazout · Knee Injury

Fenerbahçe

B. Kapacakout · Knee Injury
D. Livakovicout · Muscle Injury
J. Oosterwoldeout · Knee Injury
M. Yandasout · illness
O. Aydınout · Muscle Injury
Rodrigo Becaoout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:06.

Referee

E. Kargın→

4.97

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.5%: “Fenerbahçe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Eyüpspor, 2.10 for Fenerbahçe.
The highest double chance value is 83.3% (X2 — draw or Fenerbahçe win).
These values were computed from 837 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eyüpspor to win16.7%

Draw21.8%

Fenerbahçe to win61.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	10

6	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Eyüpspor win or draw38.5%

12 — any result other than a draw78.2%

X2 — draw or Fenerbahçe win83.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Eyüpspor lead at half-time23.8%

Level at half-time45.8%

Fenerbahçe lead at half-time30.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Eyüpspor ahead or level69.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Fenerbahçe ahead76.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 836 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eyüpspor: at least 13Actual: 12
Fenerbahçe: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Eyüpspor: at least 3Actual: 3
Fenerbahçe: at least 5Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eyüpspor score1.06

Attack: Eyüpspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fenerbahçe concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fenerbahçe score1.93

Attack: Fenerbahçe score 61% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Eyüpspor's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–211.0%1–110.6%0–29.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 837 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 16 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.