1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 13

Çorum FK–Altay

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 November 2023 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Çorum Şehir Stadyumu, Corum

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

63'Çorum FKO. Sol (assist: Geraldo)
76'Çorum FKT. Verheydt (assist: Geraldo)
80'Çorum FKG. Karadeniz (assist: K. Kalafat)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Çorum FK		Altay
15	Shots	3
4	Shots on target	0
12	Shots inside the box	1
0	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	3
3	Offsides	2
65%	Possession	35%
596	Passes	319
530	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Çorum FK 1.95 · Altay 0.83. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Çorum FK 15 · Altay 3; on target 4 and 0.
Çorum FK kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

F. Daldaş→

4.20

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.2%: “Çorum FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for Çorum FK, 0.83 for Altay.
The highest double chance value is 86.4% (1X — Çorum FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 426 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Çorum FK to win64.2%

Draw22.2%

Altay to win13.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Çorum FK lead at half-time49.6%

Level at half-time38.9%

Altay lead at half-time11.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Çorum FK ahead or level88.5%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or Altay ahead50.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 426 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Çorum FK: at least 12Actual: 11
Altay: at least 12Actual: 8

Corners

Çorum FK: at least 6Actual: 7
Altay: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Çorum FK score1.95

Attack: Çorum FK score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Altay concede 33% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Altay score0.83

Attack: Altay score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Çorum FK's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.2%1–011.4%1–111.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.