UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 1

Sporting CP–Galatasaray

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'GalatasarayGonçalo Inácio (own goal)
27'Sporting CPGeny Catamo
57'Sporting CPL. Suárez (penalty)
63'Sporting CPR. Zalazar

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting CP		Galatasaray
8	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	4
3	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
368	Passes	579
299	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting CP 2.03 · Galatasaray 1.08. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Sporting CP 8 · Galatasaray 10; on target 5 and 3.
Galatasaray kept the ball more (59%).

Announced lineup

Sporting CP

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Rui Borges

Starting XI

Rui Silvagoalkeeper
M. Araújodefender
Gonçalo Ináciodefender
Eduardo Quaresmadefender
G. Vagiannidisdefender
I. Doumbiamidfielder
Sergi Altimiramidfielder
Luis Guilhermemidfielder
R. Zalazarmidfielder
Geny Catamomidfielder
L. Suárezforward

Substitutes

Eduardo Felicíssimo
F. Ioannidis

Unavailable players

Sporting CP

I. Baout · Knock
J. Simoesout · Foot Injury
M. Zekriout · injury
N. Santosout · Muscle Injury

Galatasaray

A. Gunerout · Off the roster
A. Unyayout · Off the roster
A. Yilmazout · Off the roster
E. Aydinout · Off the roster
G. Guvencout · Muscle Injury
K. Ayhanout · Off the roster
K. Karatasout · Off the roster
M. Leminaout · Muscle Injury
S. Nasout · Off the roster
V. Osimhen

Referee

Espen Eskas, Norway→

3.06

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.1%: “Sporting CP to win”. Second comes “Galatasaray to win” at 22.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.97 for Sporting CP, 1.18 for Galatasaray.
The highest double chance value is 78.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,671 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting CP to win56.1%

Draw21.2%

Galatasaray to win22.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Galatasaray

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: O. Buruk

Starting XI

Uğurcan Çakırgoalkeeper
Ismail Jakobsdefender
Eren Elmalıdefender
Davinson Sánchezdefender
Roland Sallaidefender
Gabriel Saramidfielder
Lucas Torreiramidfielder
Barış Alper Yılmazmidfielder
Yunus Akgünmidfielder
Leroy Sanémidfielder
Aleksey Batrakovforward

Substitutes

Abdülkerim Bardakcı
Berat Luş
Deniz Gül
El Chadaille Bitshiabu
İlkay Gündoğan
Jankat Yılmaz
Lesley Ugochukwu
R. Leao
Renato Nhaga

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 19:14.

W. Singoout · Thigh Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sporting CP win or draw77.3%

12 — any result other than a draw78.8%

X2 — draw or Galatasaray win43.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.2%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.4%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting CP score2.03

Attack: Sporting CP score 64% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Galatasaray concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.03 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Galatasaray score1.08

Attack: Galatasaray score 61% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Sporting CP concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.08 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–19.8%1–19.7%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2671 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 141 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.