UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 1

Napoli–Arsenal

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

75'ArsenalM. Ødegaard (assist: C. Tzolis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Napoli		Arsenal
5	Shots	26
3	Shots on target	8
2	Shots inside the box	15
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
0	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
446	Passes	608
383	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Napoli 0.87 · Arsenal 1.24. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Napoli 5 · Arsenal 26; on target 3 and 8.
Arsenal kept the ball more (58%).

Announced lineup

Napoli

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: M. Allegri

Starting XI

A. Meretgoalkeeper
Mathías Oliveradefender
Rafa Maríndefender
Amir Rrahmanidefender
Giovanni Di Lorenzodefender
Kevin De Bruynemidfielder
Stanislav Lobotkamidfielder
Billy Gilmourmidfielder
Alisson Santosforward
Rasmus Højlundforward
Matteo Politanoforward

Substitutes

Antonio Vergara

Unavailable players

Napoli

A. Buongiornoout · Knee Injury
F. Anguissaout · Muscle Injury
Giovaneout · Groin Injury
L. Marianucciout · Knee Injury
S. McTominayout · Heart Problems
David Neresdoubtful · Knee Injury

Arsenal

C. Mosqueraout · Muscle Injury
J. Timberout · Ankle Injury
W. Salibaout · Back Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Glenn Nyberg, Sweden→

4.00

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.4%: “Arsenal to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.87 for Napoli, 1.79 for Arsenal.
The highest double chance value is 81.7% (X2 — draw or Arsenal win).
These values were computed from 3,100 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Napoli to win18.3%

Draw22.3%

Arsenal to win59.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Vanja Milinković-Savić

Arsenal

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Mikel Arteta

Starting XI

David Rayagoalkeeper
P. Hincapiédefender
Gabriel Magalhãesdefender
E. Konsadefender
B. Whitedefender
D. Ricemidfielder
Mikel Merinomidfielder
E. Ezemidfielder
M. Ødegaardmidfielder
B. Sakamidfielder
V. Gyökeresforward

Substitutes

Bruno Guimaraes
C. Tzolis
I. Meslier
K. Havertz
Kepa
M. Dowman
M. Lewis-Skelly
M. Salmon
Martín Zubimendi
N. Madueke
R. Calafiori

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 19:14.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Napoli win or draw40.6%

12 — any result other than a draw77.7%

X2 — draw or Arsenal win81.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.3%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.4%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Napoli score0.87

Attack: Napoli score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arsenal concede 46% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arsenal score1.24

Attack: Arsenal score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Napoli concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–112.9%0–211.2%1–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 3100 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 155 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.