UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 1

Liverpool–Atletico Madrid

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Atletico MadridMarcos Llorente (assist: J. Alvarez)
40'LiverpoolD. Szoboszlai (assist: R. Araújo)
50'LiverpoolA. Mac Allister (assist: A. Isak)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Liverpool		Atletico Madrid
14	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	5
3	Offsides	5
45%	Possession	55%
419	Passes	515
354	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Liverpool 1.83 · Atletico Madrid 1.26. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Liverpool 14 · Atletico Madrid 9; on target 5 and 4.
Atletico Madrid kept the ball more (55%).

Announced lineup

Liverpool

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Andoni Iraola

Starting XI

Alisson Beckergoalkeeper
M. Kerkezdefender
V. van Dijkdefender
J. Jacquetdefender
R. Araújodefender
A. Mac Allistermidfielder
D. Szoboszlaimidfielder
B. Barcolamidfielder
F. Wirtzmidfielder
R. Ngumohamidfielder
A. Isakforward

Substitutes

F. Woodman
G. Mamardashvili

Unavailable players

Liverpool

C. Bradleyout · Knee Injury
C. Gakpoout · Muscle Injury
F. Chiesaout · Back Injury
G. Leoniout · Knee Injury
H. Ekitikeout · Achilles Tendon Injury
J. Gomezout · Muscle Injury
W. Endoout · Off the roster

Atletico Madrid

A. Sorlothout · Muscle Injury
Arnau Ortizout · red-card suspension
O. Vargasdoubtful · Coach's decision

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Davide Massa, Italy→

4.43

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.7%: “Liverpool to win”. Second comes “Atletico Madrid to win” at 23.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.96 for Liverpool, 1.19 for Atletico Madrid.
The highest double chance value is 78.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 3,111 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Liverpool to win55.7%

Draw21.2%

Atletico Madrid to win23.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Atletico Madrid

Formation: 4-4-2 · Manager: D. Simeone

Starting XI

J. Oblakgoalkeeper
D. Hanckodefender
Marc Pubilldefender
C. Romerodefender
Marcos Llorentedefender
Álex Baenamidfielder
Kokemidfielder
P. Barriosmidfielder
G. Simeonemidfielder
J. Alvarezforward
Lee Kang-Inforward

Substitutes

A. Lookman
Álex Grimaldo
Dani MartÃnez
J. Cardoso
J. Castillo
J. David
J. Dominguez
J. Musso
Jorge Dominguez
M. Hjulmand
O. Vargas
Robin Le Normand
Rodrigo Mendoza

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 19:14.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Liverpool win or draw77.0%

12 — any result other than a draw78.8%

X2 — draw or Atletico Madrid win44.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.2%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.4%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Liverpool score1.83

Attack: Liverpool score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Atletico Madrid's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Atletico Madrid score1.26

Attack: Atletico Madrid score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Liverpool's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.8%1–19.7%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 3111 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 155 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.