9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.
Model prediction
Why this prediction?
·The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.0%: “VfB Stuttgart to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.5%.
·Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.93 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.04 for Viking.
·The highest double chance value is 89.5% (1X — VfB Stuttgart win or draw).
·These values were computed from 2,353 past matches.
This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.
These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.
VfB Stuttgart to win76.0%
Draw13.5%
Viking to win10.5%
When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →
274
13
Fouls
13
0
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.
D. Pejčinović
J. Vagnoman
Jarzinho Ataide Adriano de Nascimento Malanga
L. Sauer
M. Funk
R. Hendriks
Y. Spalt
Viking
Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: B. Aarsheim
Starting XI
A. Østbøgoalkeeper
K. Haugendefender
J. Dalanddefender
G. Stensnessdefender
H. Heggheimdefender
K. Askildsenmidfielder
J. Bellmidfielder
T. Moimidfielder
Z. Tripićforward
P. Christiansenforward
H. Bjørdalforward
Substitutes
A. Cosic
E. Botheim
H. Falchener
H. Haugen
J. Hansen
Ľ. Belko
N. Fuglestad
O. Visted
R. Postema
S. Kvia-Egeskog
V. Vevatne
Vetle Auklend
Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 16:38.
out · injury
V. Berishaout · Thigh Injury
H. Falchenerdoubtful · injury
K. Haugendoubtful · injury
Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.
Both teams to score
60.9%
When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →
Double chance
1X — VfB Stuttgart win or draw89.5%
12 — any result other than a draw86.5%
X2 — draw or Viking win24.0%
These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (13.5%).
Goals market
The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.
The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.4%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.
What these probabilities rest on
Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.
How many goals VfB Stuttgart score2.27
Attack: VfB Stuttgart score above the league average (22% more).
Opponent's defence: Viking concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.27 goals (including home advantage).
How many goals Viking score1.23
Attack: Viking score above the league average (30% more).
Opponent's defence: VfB Stuttgart's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).
Most likely scorelines
2–18.4%3–18.2%2–08.1%
A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.
Ratings were computed from 2353 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 138 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.
Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.
We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).
This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.
VfB Stuttgart–
Viking