UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 1

Barcelona–Feyenoord

5–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'BarcelonaRaphinha (assist: Lamine Yamal)
22'BarcelonaK. Adeyemi (assist: João Cancelo)
57'BarcelonaRaphinha (assist: Pedri)
77'BarcelonaLamine Yamal
82'FeyenoordS. Steijn (assist: Gonçalo Borges)
85'BarcelonaGabriel Jesus (assist: Lamine Yamal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Barcelona		Feyenoord
24	Shots	4
9	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	1
2	Offsides	8
72%	Possession	28%
794	Passes	308
746	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Barcelona 2.98 · Feyenoord 1.03. On the pitch: 5-1.
Shots Barcelona 24 · Feyenoord 4; on target 9 and 2.
Barcelona kept the ball more (72%).

Announced lineup

Barcelona

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: H. Flick

Starting XI

Joan Garcíagoalkeeper
João Cancelodefender
A. Christensendefender
Pau Cubarsí Paredesdefender
J. Koundédefender
Pedrimidfielder
Rodrimidfielder
Dani Olmomidfielder
K. Adeyemiforward
Raphinhaforward
Lamine Yamalforward

Substitutes

A. Gordon
Alejandro Balde

Unavailable players

Barcelona

Eric Garcíaout · red-card suspension
F. de Jongout · Knee Injury
J. Bisiwuout · Ankle Injury
R. Bardghjiout · Knee Injury

Feyenoord

B. Nieuwkoopout · injury
G. Smalout · Ankle Injury
J. Bosout · Knee Injury
J. Moderout · Knee Injury
R. Nelsonout · not in squad
T. Beelenout · Broken Leg

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Sven Jablonski, Germany→

3.05

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 88.8%: “Barcelona to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 7.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.74 for Barcelona, 0.77 for Feyenoord.
The highest double chance value is 96.1% (1X — Barcelona win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,828 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Barcelona to win88.8%

Draw7.3%

Feyenoord to win3.9%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 145 of 164 predictions were correct (88.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Feyenoord

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: G. van Bronckhorst

Starting XI

T. Ernstgoalkeeper
Mika Màrmoldefender
T. Watanabedefender
J. St. Justedefender
G. Readdefender
L. Valentemidfielder
C. Vanhouttemidfielder
G. Zechiëlmidfielder
Javi Lópezforward
Nacho Ferriforward
A. Hadj-Moussaforward

Substitutes

F. Kastenmeier
G. Diarra
Gonçalo Borges
L. Bossin
M. Deijl
O. Targhalline
S. Steijn
S. van Persie
T. Kraaijeveld
T. van den Elshout
T. Wessels

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 16:58.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Barcelona win or draw96.1%

12 — any result other than a draw92.7%

X2 — draw or Feyenoord win11.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (7.3%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.4%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Barcelona score2.98

Attack: Barcelona score 86% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Feyenoord concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.98 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Feyenoord score1.03

Attack: Feyenoord score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Barcelona concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.03 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

3–09.6%4–09.0%2–07.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2828 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 141 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.