1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 1

Gençlerbirliği S.K.–Ümraniyespor

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 August 2023 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aktepe Stadı, Ankara

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'Gençlerbirliği S.K.Y. Güreler (assist: B. Çağıran)
39'Gençlerbirliği S.K.U. Akdemir (assist: M. Ertürk)
43'ÜmraniyesporH. Ayaroğlu (assist: S. Popov)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gençlerbirliği S.K.		Ümraniyespor
9	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
34%	Possession	66%
268	Passes	527
188	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots Gençlerbirliği S.K. 9 · Ümraniyespor 8; on target 5 and 3.
Ümraniyespor kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

K. Bilgiç→

4.20

yellows per match

0.60

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

One of the teams has only 0 matches in this league (at least 10 are required). A percentage produced from thin data is a guess dressed as certainty — we don't show it.

10	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.