2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

SV Sandhausen–Hamburger SV

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 May 2023 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Sandhausen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Hamburger SVJean-Luc Dompé (assist: R. Königsdörffer)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Sandhausen		Hamburger SV
8	Shots	13
1	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	8
0	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
379	Passes	377
284	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Sandhausen 1.09 · Hamburger SV 2.09. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots SV Sandhausen 8 · Hamburger SV 13; on target 1 and 3.

Referee

F. Badstübner→

3.65

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.3%: “Hamburger SV to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.02 for SV Sandhausen, 2.67 for Hamburger SV.
The highest double chance value is 89.5% (X2 — draw or Hamburger SV win).
These values were computed from 297 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Sandhausen to win10.5%

Draw16.2%

Hamburger SV to win73.3%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — SV Sandhausen win or draw26.7%

12 — any result other than a draw83.8%

X2 — draw or Hamburger SV win89.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (16.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

SV Sandhausen lead at half-time13.3%

Level at half-time36.3%

Hamburger SV lead at half-time50.5%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Sandhausen ahead or level49.5%

12 — not level at half-time63.7%

X2 — level or Hamburger SV ahead86.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 297 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Sandhausen: at least 12Actual: 8
Hamburger SV: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

SV Sandhausen: at least 4Actual: 2
Hamburger SV: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals72.7%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 405 of 553 predictions were correct (73.2%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 57.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Sandhausen score1.09

Attack: SV Sandhausen score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hamburger SV score2.09

Attack: Hamburger SV score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: SV Sandhausen concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.09 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–29.9%1–39.0%0–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 297 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 33 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.