2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

Hannover 96–Holstein Kiel

1–5

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 May 2023 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'Holstein KielF. Reese (assist: P. Sander)
23'Holstein KielT. Becker (assist: P. Sander)
45'Holstein KielB. Pichler (assist: F. Reese)
59'Holstein KielF. Bartels (assist: F. Reese)
62'Holstein KielF. Bartels (assist: F. Reese)
72'Hannover 96P. Neumann

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hannover 96		Holstein Kiel
9	Shots	14
1	Shots on target	8
2	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	2
3	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
462	Passes	453
408	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hannover 96 1.88 · Holstein Kiel 1.60. On the pitch: 1-5.
Shots Hannover 96 9 · Holstein Kiel 14; on target 1 and 8.

Referee

M. Thomsen→

5.22

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.4%: “Hannover 96 to win”. Second comes “Holstein Kiel to win” at 31.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.08 for Hannover 96, 1.71 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 297 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hannover 96 to win46.4%

Draw22.7%

Holstein Kiel to win31.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Hannover 96 lead at half-time37.5%

Level at half-time37.5%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time25.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Hannover 96 ahead or level75.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.5%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead62.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 297 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hannover 96: at least 10Actual: 6
Holstein Kiel: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Hannover 96: at least 5Actual: 6
Holstein Kiel: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hannover 96 score1.88

Attack: Hannover 96 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.88 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.60

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hannover 96 concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.1%1–18.9%2–28.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.