2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

1. FC Heidenheim–SV Sandhausen

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 May 2023 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

68'1. FC HeidenheimJ. Beste (assist: T. Kleindienst)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Heidenheim		SV Sandhausen
21	Shots	3
6	Shots on target	0
16	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
13	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
463	Passes	325
352	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.41 · SV Sandhausen 0.65. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots 1. FC Heidenheim 21 · SV Sandhausen 3; on target 6 and 0.
1. FC Heidenheim kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

B. Brand→

5.40

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.4%: “1. FC Heidenheim to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 17.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.31 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 0.78 for SV Sandhausen.
The highest double chance value is 90.4% (1X — 1. FC Heidenheim win or draw).
These values were computed from 290 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Heidenheim to win72.4%

Draw17.9%

SV Sandhausen to win9.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time66.1%

Level at half-time29.4%

SV Sandhausen lead at half-time4.5%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Heidenheim ahead or level95.5%

12 — not level at half-time70.6%

X2 — level or SV Sandhausen ahead33.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 290 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 10Actual: 9
SV Sandhausen: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 6Actual: 13
SV Sandhausen: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score2.41

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Sandhausen concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Sandhausen score0.65

Attack: SV Sandhausen score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.65 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.5%2–110.4%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.