2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

SV Sandhausen–Hansa Rostock

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 12 May 2023 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Sandhausen

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Hansa RostockN. Fröling
37'Hansa RostockK. Pröger (penalty)
54'SV SandhausenJ. Bachmann (assist: Alexander Esswein)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Sandhausen		Hansa Rostock
17	Shots	8
1	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
64%	Possession	36%
472	Passes	271
356	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Sandhausen 1.35 · Hansa Rostock 1.29. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots SV Sandhausen 17 · Hansa Rostock 8; on target 1 and 3.
SV Sandhausen kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

S. Storks→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.7%: “Hansa Rostock to win”. Second comes “SV Sandhausen to win” at 34.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for SV Sandhausen, 1.21 for Hansa Rostock.
The highest double chance value is 70.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 279 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Sandhausen to win34.6%

Draw29.7%

Hansa Rostock to win35.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

SV Sandhausen lead at half-time30.6%

Level at half-time43.9%

Hansa Rostock lead at half-time25.6%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Sandhausen ahead or level74.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Hansa Rostock ahead69.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 279 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Sandhausen: at least 11Actual: 11
Hansa Rostock: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

SV Sandhausen: at least 5Actual: 7
Hansa Rostock: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Sandhausen score1.35

Attack: SV Sandhausen score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hansa Rostock's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hansa Rostock score1.29

Attack: Hansa Rostock score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SV Sandhausen concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%0–110.0%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.