2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

Eintracht Braunschweig–SV Sandhausen

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 May 2023 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eintracht-Stadion, Braunschweig

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

82'Eintracht BraunschweigS. Decarli
88'SV SandhausenA. Zhirov (assist: Chima Okoroji)
89'Eintracht BraunschweigA. Donkor (assist: A. Ujah)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Braunschweig		SV Sandhausen
12	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	12
1	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
326	Passes	367
214	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Braunschweig 1.87 · SV Sandhausen 0.97. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Eintracht Braunschweig 12 · SV Sandhausen 11; on target 6 and 5.

Referee

D. Siebert→

4.76

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.4%: “Eintracht Braunschweig to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1.03 for SV Sandhausen.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (1X — Eintracht Braunschweig win or draw).
These values were computed from 276 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Braunschweig to win50.4%

Draw26.7%

SV Sandhausen to win22.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time30.4%

Level at half-time43.0%

SV Sandhausen lead at half-time26.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Braunschweig ahead or level73.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or SV Sandhausen ahead69.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 276 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 10Actual: 15
SV Sandhausen: at least 13Actual: 8

Corners

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 5Actual: 3
SV Sandhausen: at least 3Actual: 12

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.87

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Sandhausen concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Sandhausen score0.97

Attack: SV Sandhausen score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–010.7%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.