2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 30

SV Sandhausen–SSV Jahn Regensburg

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 April 2023 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Sandhausen

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'SV SandhausenM. Papela
52'SV SandhausenD. Đumić (assist: Chima Okoroji)
64'SSV Jahn RegensburgP. Owusu (assist: A. Albers)
85'SSV Jahn RegensburgLeon Guwara · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Sandhausen		SSV Jahn Regensburg
10	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	5
4	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
316	Passes	388
192	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Sandhausen 1.24 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.26. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots SV Sandhausen 10 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 11; on target 4 and 3.
SSV Jahn Regensburg kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

D. Aytekin→

3.79

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.8%: “SSV Jahn Regensburg to win”. Second comes “SV Sandhausen to win” at 32.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.16 for SV Sandhausen, 1.26 for SSV Jahn Regensburg.
The highest double chance value is 70.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 267 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Sandhausen to win32.7%

Draw29.5%

SSV Jahn Regensburg to win37.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

SV Sandhausen lead at half-time26.5%

Level at half-time43.0%

SSV Jahn Regensburg lead at half-time30.4%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Sandhausen ahead or level69.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or SSV Jahn Regensburg ahead73.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 267 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Sandhausen: at least 12Actual: 16
SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

SV Sandhausen: at least 4Actual: 9
SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Sandhausen score1.24

Attack: SV Sandhausen score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SSV Jahn Regensburg score1.26

Attack: SSV Jahn Regensburg score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SV Sandhausen concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%0–110.3%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.