2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 29

SV Sandhausen–SC Paderborn 07

2–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 April 2023 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Sandhausen

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'SC Paderborn 07F. Muslija
27'SC Paderborn 07M. Rohr (assist: F. Muslija)
31'SV SandhausenKemal Ademi (assist: A. El-Zein)
48'SV SandhausenF. Evina (assist: A. El-Zein)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Sandhausen		SC Paderborn 07
6	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
29%	Possession	71%
251	Passes	637
169	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Sandhausen 1.01 · SC Paderborn 07 1.99. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots SV Sandhausen 6 · SC Paderborn 07 12; on target 4 and 4.
SC Paderborn 07 kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

T. Stieler→

2.75

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.7%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.01 for SV Sandhausen, 1.92 for SC Paderborn 07.
The highest double chance value is 82.1% (X2 — draw or SC Paderborn 07 win).
These values were computed from 258 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Sandhausen to win17.9%

Draw23.4%

SC Paderborn 07 to win58.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

SV Sandhausen lead at half-time21.1%

Level at half-time41.4%

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time37.5%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Sandhausen ahead or level62.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or SC Paderborn 07 ahead78.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 258 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Sandhausen: at least 11Actual: 16
SC Paderborn 07: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

SV Sandhausen: at least 4Actual: 3
SC Paderborn 07: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Sandhausen score1.01

Attack: SV Sandhausen score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.99

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: SV Sandhausen concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%1–211.0%0–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.