2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 29

SV Darmstadt 98–Karlsruher SC

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 21 April 2023 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Karlsruher SCFabian Schleusener
26'SV Darmstadt 98B. Manu (assist: P. Tietz)
50'SV Darmstadt 98P. Tietz (assist: P. Pfeiffer)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Darmstadt 98		Karlsruher SC
10	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	7
6	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
410	Passes	418
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Darmstadt 98 1.80 · Karlsruher SC 1.03. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots SV Darmstadt 98 10 · Karlsruher SC 18; on target 5 and 7.

Referee

A. Aarnink→

5.33

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.6%: “SV Darmstadt 98 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.89 for SV Darmstadt 98, 1.11 for Karlsruher SC.
The highest double chance value is 79.5% (1X — SV Darmstadt 98 win or draw).
These values were computed from 252 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Darmstadt 98 to win55.6%

Draw23.9%

Karlsruher SC to win20.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

SV Darmstadt 98 lead at half-time40.3%

Level at half-time41.4%

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time18.3%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Darmstadt 98 ahead or level81.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Karlsruher SC ahead59.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 252 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 10Actual: 5
Karlsruher SC: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 5Actual: 2
Karlsruher SC: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Darmstadt 98 score1.80

Attack: SV Darmstadt 98 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.03

Attack: Karlsruher SC score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: SV Darmstadt 98 concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–110.9%2–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.