2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 28

1. FC Magdeburg–SV Sandhausen

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 April 2023 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Avnet Arena, Magdeburg

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'SV SandhausenD. Đumić (assist: Alexander Esswein)
66'SV SandhausenD. Đumić (assist: Alexander Esswein)
89'1. FC MagdeburgC. Piccini (assist: C. Krempicki)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Magdeburg		SV Sandhausen
18	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	6
3	Offsides	4
72%	Possession	28%
527	Passes	203
446	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.10 · SV Sandhausen 0.98. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots 1. FC Magdeburg 18 · SV Sandhausen 8; on target 5 and 5.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (72%).

Referee

M. Thomsen→

5.00

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.4%: “1. FC Magdeburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.03 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 0.96 for SV Sandhausen.
The highest double chance value is 84.4% (1X — 1. FC Magdeburg win or draw).
These values were computed from 245 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Magdeburg to win62.4%

Draw22.0%

SV Sandhausen to win15.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	25

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time42.6%

Level at half-time41.3%

SV Sandhausen lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Magdeburg ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or SV Sandhausen ahead57.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 245 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 9Actual: 7
SV Sandhausen: at least 13Actual: 25

Corners

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 5Actual: 5
SV Sandhausen: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score2.10

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Sandhausen concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Sandhausen score0.98

Attack: SV Sandhausen score below the league average (32% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–111.0%2–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.