2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 19

1. FC Kaiserslautern–Holstein Kiel

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 February 2023 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'1. FC KaiserslauternD. Hanslik (assist: H. Zuck)
30'Holstein KielF. Porath (assist: S. Lorenz)
71'1. FC KaiserslauternT. Boyd (assist: H. Zuck)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Kaiserslautern		Holstein Kiel
17	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
38%	Possession	62%
267	Passes	456
168	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.78 · Holstein Kiel 1.38. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots 1. FC Kaiserslautern 17 · Holstein Kiel 11; on target 4 and 3.
Holstein Kiel kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

M. Thomsen→

5.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.3%: “1. FC Kaiserslautern to win”. Second comes “Holstein Kiel to win” at 32.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 1.33 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 164 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win40.3%

Draw27.1%

Holstein Kiel to win32.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time29.4%

Level at half-time43.6%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time27.0%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead or level73.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead70.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 164 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 9Actual: 9
Holstein Kiel: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 5Actual: 8
Holstein Kiel: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.78

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.38

Attack: Holstein Kiel score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–19.6%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.