UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 1

Real Madrid–Inter

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 8 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Real MadridKylian Mbappé (assist: Brahim Díaz)
23'Real MadridF. Valverde
77'InterCarlos Augusto (assist: Lautaro Martínez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Madrid		Inter
16	Shots	21
8	Shots on target	7
14	Shots inside the box	15
7	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	11
2	Offsides	4
36%	Possession	64%
352	Passes	621
305	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Madrid 1.72 · Inter 1.44. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Real Madrid 16 · Inter 21; on target 8 and 7.
Inter kept the ball more (64%).

Announced lineup

Real Madrid

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: José Mourinho

Starting XI

T. Courtoisgoalkeeper
Marc Cucurelladefender
D. Huijsendefender
I. Konatédefender
D. Dumfriesdefender
J. Bellinghammidfielder
F. Valverdemidfielder
T. Alexander-Arnoldmidfielder
Vinícius Júniorforward
Kylian Mbappéforward
Brahim Díazforward

Substitutes

A. Lunin
A. Rüdiger

Unavailable players

Real Madrid

A. Gulerout · red-card suspension
A. Tchouameniout · Muscle Injury
B. Silvaout · red-card suspension
E. Camavingaout · red-card suspension
Eder Militaoout · Hamstring Injury
F. Mendyout · Hip Injury
R. Asencioout · Muscle Injury
Rodrygoout · Knee Injury
A. Lunindoubtful · illness
Endrickdoubtful · Muscle Injury
T. Pitarchdoubtful · Knee Injury

Inter

D. Spenceout · injury
F. Dimarcoout · Knee Injury
M. Spinacce

Referee

Michael Oliver, England→

4.33

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.2%: “Real Madrid to win”. Second comes “Inter to win” at 20.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.20 for Real Madrid, 1.20 for Inter.
The highest double chance value is 80.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 3,111 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Madrid to win60.2%

Draw19.5%

Inter to win20.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Inter

Formation: 3-5-2 · Manager: C. Chivu

Starting XI

Josep Martínezgoalkeeper
Alessandro Bastonidefender
Yann Bisseckdefender
Benjamin Pavarddefender
Carlos Augustomidfielder
Curtis Jonesmidfielder
H. Calhanoglumidfielder
Nicolò Barellamidfielder
Andy Dioufmidfielder
Marcus Thuramforward
Lautaro Martínezforward

Substitutes

Aleksandar Stanković
Ange-Yoan Bonny
H. Mkhitaryan
Ivan Provedel
John Stones
Luís Henrique
Manuel Akanji
Petar Sučić
Pio Esposito
Piotr Zieliński
Raffaele Di Gennaro

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Tuesday, 8 September 2026 at 19:14.

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Real Madrid win or draw79.7%

12 — any result other than a draw80.5%

X2 — draw or Inter win39.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.5%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Madrid score1.72

Attack: Real Madrid score above the league average (45% more).

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Inter score1.44

Attack: Inter score 63% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Real Madrid concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.44 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–19.7%1–18.6%2–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 3111 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 155 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.