UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 1

Lille–Real Betis

2–3

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 8 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'LilleA. Ueda (assist: E. Mbappé)
33'Real BetisMarc Bartra (assist: Pablo Fornals)
36'LilleAlexsandro Ribeiro (assist: G. Perrin)
49'Real BetisMarc Bartra (assist: Isco)
53'Real BetisT. Parrott (assist: Rodrigo Riquelme)
56'Lille

Match statistics

Match statistics
Lille		Real Betis
6	Shots	20
2	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	5
4	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
447	Passes	564
392	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Lille 1.52 · Real Betis 1.04. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Lille 6 · Real Betis 20; on target 2 and 5.
Real Betis kept the ball more (55%).

Announced lineup

Lille

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Davide Ancelotti

Starting XI

B. Özergoalkeeper
R. Perrauddefender
Alexsandro Ribeirodefender
N. Ngoydefender
Tiago Santosdefender
N. Bentalebmidfielder
B. Andremidfielder
H. Haraldssonmidfielder
G. Perrinmidfielder
E. Mbappémidfielder
A. Uedaforward

Substitutes

B. Önal
C. Verdonk

Unavailable players

Lille

A. Bodartout · Off the roster
H. Igamaneout · Knee Injury
L. Srdanovicout · not in squad
S. Diaouneout · not in squad
T. Nianzouout · not in squad

Real Betis

A. Ezzalzouliout · illness
A. Ruibalout · Knee Injury
D. Condeout · Shoulder Injury
D. Llorenteout · Broken nose
G. Lo Celsoout · Muscle Injury
I. Losadaout · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Georgi Kabakov, Bulgaria→

5.17

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.9%: “Lille to win”. Second comes “Real Betis to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for Lille, 1.24 for Real Betis.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,885 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Lille to win44.9%

Draw24.3%

Real Betis to win30.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

E. Mbappé · red card

11	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Real Betis

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: M. Pellegrini

Starting XI

Álvaro Vallésgoalkeeper
Junior Firpodefender
Natandefender
Marc Bartradefender
Héctor Belleríndefender
Pablo Fornalsmidfielder
F. Bernalmidfielder
Rodrigo Riquelmemidfielder
Iscomidfielder
Antonymidfielder
T. Parrottforward

Substitutes

Álvaro Fidalgo
Ángel Ortiz
C. Hernández
D. Ceballos
D. Conde
Fran García
G. Lo Celso
J. Morante
Manu González
Marc Roca
N. Deossa
V. Gómez

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Tuesday, 8 September 2026 at 19:14.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Lille win or draw69.2%

12 — any result other than a draw75.7%

X2 — draw or Real Betis win55.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.3%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Lille score1.52

Attack: Lille score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Betis's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Real Betis score1.04

Attack: Real Betis score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lille concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%1–09.9%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2885 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 143 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.