UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 1

Borussia Dortmund–Villarreal

3–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 8 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'Borussia DortmundRenato Veiga (own goal)
66'VillarrealS. Mouriño (assist: G. Mikautadze)
80'Borussia DortmundS. Guirassy (assist: Fábio Silva)
85'Borussia DortmundS. Guirassy (penalty)
90+3'VillarrealS. Guirassy (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Borussia Dortmund		Villarreal
18	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	6
12	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	7
1	Offsides	3
52%	Possession	48%
515	Passes	482
461	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Borussia Dortmund 1.96 · Villarreal 1.23. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Borussia Dortmund 18 · Villarreal 13; on target 6 and 6.

Announced lineup

Borussia Dortmund

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: N. Kovač

Starting XI

G. Kobelgoalkeeper
D. Svenssondefender
W. Antondefender
Kouakou Joane Gadoudefender
M. Beiermidfielder
M. Sabitzermidfielder
J. Veermanmidfielder
J. Ryersonmidfielder
F. Nmechamidfielder
K. Karetsasmidfielder
S. Guirassyforward

Substitutes

A. Meyer
C. Chukwuemeka

Unavailable players

Borussia Dortmund

E. Canout · Knee Injury
F. Maneout · Muscle Injury
G. Konstanteliasout · Knee Injury
J. Lermaout · Muscle Injury
M. Kabaout · injury
N. Schlotterbeckout · red-card suspension
R. Bensebainiout · red-card suspension

Villarreal

C. Romeroout · injury
J. Foythout · Achilles Tendon Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Simone Sozza, Italy→

4.62

yellows per match

0.46

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.9%: “Borussia Dortmund to win”. Second comes “Villarreal to win” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.02 for Borussia Dortmund, 1.32 for Villarreal.
The highest double chance value is 79.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,803 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Borussia Dortmund to win53.9%

Draw21.0%

Villarreal to win25.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,541 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Villarreal

Formation: 4-4-2 · Manager: Iñigo Pérez

Starting XI

P. Gulácsigoalkeeper
Sergi Cardonadefender
Renato Veigadefender
Pau Navarrodefender
S. Mouriñodefender
Santi Comesañamidfielder
N. Salibamidfielder
P. Gueyemidfielder
T. Buchananmidfielder
G. Mikautadzeforward
T. Oluwaseyiforward

Substitutes

A. Diatta
A. Freeman
Alberto Moleiro
Ayoze Pérez
C. Macia
Gerard Moreno
Ilias Akhomach
Logan Costa
Luíz Júnior
N. Pépé
Rubén Gómez

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Tuesday, 8 September 2026 at 19:14.

Both teams to score63.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Borussia Dortmund win or draw74.9%

12 — any result other than a draw79.0%

X2 — draw or Villarreal win46.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.0%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Borussia Dortmund score1.96

Attack: Borussia Dortmund score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Villarreal's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Villarreal score1.23

Attack: Villarreal score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Borussia Dortmund concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.6%1–19.2%1–07.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2803 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 138 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.