UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 1

AEK Athens FC–Lask Linz

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 8 September 2026 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'AEK Athens FCR. Marin

Match statistics

Match statistics
AEK Athens FC		Lask Linz
18	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
405	Passes	426
341	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AEK Athens FC 2.06 · Lask Linz 0.83. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots AEK Athens FC 18 · Lask Linz 11; on target 4 and 3.

Announced lineup

AEK Athens FC

Formation: 4-4-2 · Manager: M. Nikolić

Starting XI

A. Brignoligoalkeeper
S. Piliosdefender
Filipe Relvasdefender
H. Moukoudidefender
L. Rotadefender
A. Koitamidfielder
R. Marinmidfielder
M. Vitálismidfielder
L. Majermidfielder
L. Jovićforward
B. Vargaforward

Substitutes

C. Lykogiannis
D. Vida

Referee

Luís Godinho, Portugal→

5.40

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.7%: “AEK Athens FC to win”. Second comes “Lask Linz to win” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for AEK Athens FC, 1.22 for Lask Linz.
The highest double chance value is 78.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,510 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AEK Athens FC to win54.7%

Draw21.4%

Lask Linz to win23.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,541 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Lask Linz

Formation: 5-3-2 · Manager: D. Kühbauer

Starting XI

L. Jungwirthgoalkeeper
G. Bellodefender
A. Andradedefender
Alemãodefender
X. Mbuyambadefender
K. Jørgensendefender
S. Horvathmidfielder
R. Ljubičićmidfielder
M. Bogardemidfielder
C. Langforward
M. Usorforward

Substitutes

A. Schöpf
Daniel Elfadli
F. Flecker
Fabian Schillinger
K. Daněk
M. Freckleton
M. Verhaeghe
N. Kane
S. Kalajdzic
T. Schützenauer
Y. Dibango

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Tuesday, 8 September 2026 at 16:38.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — AEK Athens FC win or draw76.1%

12 — any result other than a draw78.6%

X2 — draw or Lask Linz win45.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.4%).

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AEK Athens FC score2.06

Attack: AEK Athens FC score 68% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Lask Linz concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lask Linz score0.83

Attack: Lask Linz score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: AEK Athens FC concede 49% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.83 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–19.7%1–19.7%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1510 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 123 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.