2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 16

SC Paderborn 07–Arminia Bielefeld

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Tuesday, 8 November 2022 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 16%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'SC Paderborn 07Jannik Huth · red card
40'Arminia BielefeldJ. Serra (assist: M. Okugawa)
45+2'Arminia BielefeldS. Vasiliadis (assist: M. Rzatkowski)
70'Arminia BielefeldL. Klünter · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Paderborn 07		Arminia Bielefeld
10	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	14
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	2
2	Offsides	3
45%	Possession	55%
326	Passes	409
244	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 2.39 · Arminia Bielefeld 0.82. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots SC Paderborn 07 10 · Arminia Bielefeld 18; on target 5 and 5.
Arminia Bielefeld kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

M. Thomsen→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.7%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.11 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.02 for Arminia Bielefeld.
The highest double chance value is 84.1% (1X — SC Paderborn 07 win or draw).
These values were computed from 135 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Paderborn 07 to win62.7%

Draw21.5%

Arminia Bielefeld to win15.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	6

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–2

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time42.8%

Level at half-time40.2%

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time17.0%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Paderborn 07 ahead or level83.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Arminia Bielefeld ahead57.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 135 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Paderborn 07: at least 9Actual: 14
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

SC Paderborn 07: at least 5Actual: 7
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score2.39

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (34% more).

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.39 goals.

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score0.82

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.5%2–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.