2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 14

1. FC Magdeburg–1. FC Heidenheim

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 28 October 2022 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Avnet Arena, Magdeburg

Goals and red cards

23'1. FC HeidenheimD. Thomalla (assist: T. Kleindienst)
90+3'1. FC MagdeburgT. Ito (assist: J. Çeka)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Magdeburg		1. FC Heidenheim
15	Shots	12
1	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
7	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
75%	Possession	25%
748	Passes	244
636	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.11 · 1. FC Heidenheim 1.53. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots 1. FC Magdeburg 15 · 1. FC Heidenheim 12; on target 1 and 4.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (75%).

Referee

M. Thomsen→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.0%: “1. FC Heidenheim to win”. Second comes “1. FC Magdeburg to win” at 33.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.50 for 1. FC Heidenheim.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 117 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Magdeburg to win33.1%

Draw26.9%

1. FC Heidenheim to win40.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time23.8%

Level at half-time42.3%

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time34.0%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Magdeburg ahead or level66.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or 1. FC Heidenheim ahead76.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 117 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 9Actual: 11
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 4Actual: 7
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.11

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.53

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg concede 30% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–29.6%2–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.