Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 38

Le Havre–Dijon

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 2 June 2023 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Océane, Le Havre

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Le HavreJ. Casimir (assist: Christopher Operi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Le Havre		Dijon
8	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	5
3	Offsides	0
35%	Possession	65%
308	Passes	558
196	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Le Havre 1.16 · Dijon 0.63. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Le Havre 8 · Dijon 10; on target 3 and 2.
Dijon kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

R. Lissorgue→

3.57

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.6%: “Le Havre to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Le Havre, 0.85 for Dijon.
The highest double chance value is 77.5% (1X — Le Havre win or draw).
These values were computed from 370 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Le Havre to win47.6%

Draw29.9%

Dijon to win22.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Le Havre lead at half-time27.6%

Level at half-time53.5%

Dijon lead at half-time18.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Le Havre ahead or level81.1%

12 — not level at half-time46.5%

X2 — level or Dijon ahead72.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 370 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Le Havre: at least 13Actual: 15
Dijon: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Le Havre: at least 4Actual: 2
Dijon: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Le Havre score1.16

Attack: Le Havre score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dijon concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dijon score0.63

Attack: Dijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Le Havre concede 51% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–014.3%0–010.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.