Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 38

Nimes–Sochaux

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 2 June 2023 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade des Antonins, Nîmes

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'NimesM. Tchokounte (assist: P. Pagis)
29'SochauxI. Sissoko
75'NimesM. Tchokounte (assist: M. Doucouré)
86'NimesR. Said (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nimes		Sochaux
9	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	5
0	Offsides	5
58%	Possession	42%
552	Passes	389
484	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nimes 1.33 · Sochaux 1.40. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Nimes 9 · Sochaux 15; on target 5 and 6.
Nimes kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

W. Toulliou→

3.05

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.5%: “Nimes to win”. Second comes “Sochaux to win” at 37.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for Nimes, 1.60 for Sochaux.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 370 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nimes to win37.5%

Draw25.4%

Sochaux to win37.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	23

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Nimes win or draw62.9%

12 — any result other than a draw74.6%

X2 — draw or Sochaux win62.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Nimes lead at half-time22.2%

Level at half-time43.8%

Sochaux lead at half-time34.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Nimes ahead or level66.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Sochaux ahead77.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 370 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nimes: at least 13Actual: 16
Sochaux: at least 13Actual: 23

Corners

Nimes: at least 3Actual: 3
Sochaux: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals63.1%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nimes score1.33

Attack: Nimes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sochaux's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sochaux score1.40

Attack: Sochaux score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nimes concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–19.1%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 370 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 37 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.