Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 37

Laval–Nimes

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 26 May 2023 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser, Laval

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'LavalS. Elisor (assist: J. Adéoti)
36'LavalZ. Naidji (assist: A. Bobichon)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Laval		Nimes
9	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
479	Passes	584
407	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Laval 1.54 · Nimes 1.17. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Laval 9 · Nimes 6; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

B. Lepaysant→

3.59

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.3%: “Laval to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.27 for Laval, 0.88 for Nimes.
The highest double chance value is 88.4% (1X — Laval win or draw).
These values were computed from 360 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Laval to win69.3%

Draw19.0%

Nimes to win11.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Laval win or draw88.4%

12 — any result other than a draw81.0%

X2 — draw or Nimes win30.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.0%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Laval lead at half-time35.6%

Level at half-time42.2%

Nimes lead at half-time22.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Laval ahead or level77.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Nimes ahead64.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 360 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Laval: at least 13Actual: 11
Nimes: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Laval: at least 4Actual: 5
Nimes: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Laval score1.54

Attack: Laval score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nimes concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Nimes score1.17

Attack: Nimes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Laval's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.3%2–110.7%1–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 360 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 36 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.