Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 37

Guingamp–Niort

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 26 May 2023 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'GuingampG. Courtet (assist: J. Livolant)
90+4'GuingampG. Courtet (assist: A. El Ouazzani)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Guingamp		Niort
16	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
444	Passes	468
354	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Guingamp 1.91 · Niort 0.79. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Guingamp 16 · Niort 9; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

W. Toulliou→

3.16

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.3%: “Guingamp to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.19 for Guingamp, 0.98 for Niort.
The highest double chance value is 85.8% (1X — Guingamp win or draw).
These values were computed from 360 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Guingamp to win65.3%

Draw20.5%

Niort to win14.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Guingamp win or draw85.8%

12 — any result other than a draw79.5%

X2 — draw or Niort win34.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Guingamp lead at half-time52.5%

Level at half-time38.3%

Niort lead at half-time9.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Guingamp ahead or level90.8%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or Niort ahead47.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 360 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Guingamp: at least 13Actual: 9
Niort: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Guingamp: at least 3Actual: 5
Niort: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 44.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Guingamp score1.91

Attack: Guingamp score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Niort concede 45% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Niort score0.79

Attack: Niort score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Guingamp's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%2–010.3%1–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 360 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 36 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.