Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 36

Nimes–Dijon

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 May 2023 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade des Costières, Nîmes

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'NimesR. Said (assist: M. Zerkane)
55'DijonL. Tchaouna
77'DijonJ. Marié

Match statistics

Match statistics
Nimes		Dijon
11	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	9
10	Shots inside the box	6
7	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	5
4	Offsides	3
52%	Possession	48%
469	Passes	435
379	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nimes 1.23 · Dijon 1.16. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Nimes 11 · Dijon 14; on target 4 and 9.

Referee

J. Stinat→

3.70

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.0%: “Dijon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.97 for Nimes, 1.57 for Dijon.
The highest double chance value is 78.0% (X2 — draw or Dijon win).
These values were computed from 352 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nimes to win22.0%

Draw27.1%

Dijon to win51.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Nimes win or draw49.0%

12 — any result other than a draw72.9%

X2 — draw or Dijon win78.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Nimes lead at half-time25.9%

Level at half-time47.5%

Dijon lead at half-time26.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Nimes ahead or level73.4%

12 — not level at half-time52.5%

X2 — level or Dijon ahead74.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 352 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nimes: at least 12Actual: 12
Dijon: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Nimes: at least 3Actual: 4
Dijon: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals47.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 43.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nimes score1.23

Attack: Nimes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dijon's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dijon score1.16

Attack: Dijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nimes concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%0–111.6%1–210.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 352 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 35 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.